Which Strategy Should I Choose From the Leaderboard

Introduction

This guide walks you through the process of selecting strategies from the Blue Edge Financial leaderboard. It will help you understand the key metrics to look at when choosing a strategy, and how to make informed decisions based on performance data.

Step-by-Step Strategy Selection Process

1. Access the Leaderboard

• Go to leaderboard.blueedgefinancial.com.
• If you see only the top 10 strategies, log in to your BlueEdge dashboard to access the complete list.

2. Key Metrics to Consider

Pass Rate

• Importance: The pass rate is the most crucial metric when selecting a strategy, as it indicates the likelihood of hitting the take profit target based on historical data.
• Data Overview:
• The top row shows the pass rate based on 12 months of data, providing a long-term view.
• The bottom row shows the pass rate based on the last 12 weeks, offering a more recent performance snapshot.
• Example: A strategy with a 92% pass rate over 12 months and 76% over 12 weeks shows it has been performing well historically, though it may have recent fluctuations.

Average Days

• Importance: This metric shows the average time taken to reach an outcome (pass or fail). It sets realistic expectations for how long a strategy might take to perform.
• Understanding the Data:
• Example: If the average is 23.54 days, it doesn’t mean it will always take 23 days; outcomes can vary widely.

Average EP Hits (Equity Protector)

• Importance: This metric shows the average number of stop-loss hits (EPs) before an outcome is reached. It helps set expectations for how many failures can occur before success.
• Understanding EP Hits:
• Example: If a strategy shows an average of 9 EPs, it doesn’t mean it will always hit exactly 9; it simply means this is the historical average.

Recency Score

• Importance: The recency score reflects performance over the last two weeks but should not be the primary decision factor due to the limited data scope.
• Usage Tips:
• Use it as a supplementary indicator rather than a key determinant.
• Even strategies with low recency scores can rebound and perform well, so focus more on long-term metrics like pass rates.

3. Analyzing Forward Test Data

• Forward Test Data: Strategies that have been on the leaderboard for longer periods (e.g., 14, 21, or 30 days) have more proven results in live market conditions.
• Live Market Results: Forward test data, shown by a forward arrow, indicates the strategy's real-time performance, providing insights into expected future outcomes.

4. Additional Tips for Strategy Selection

• Filtering by Pass Rate: Click the "Overall" button to sort strategies by the highest pass rate.
• Forward Test Verification: Strategies on the leaderboard for over 30 days are marked as forward test verified, indicating consistent performance in live conditions.
• Long-Term vs. Short-Term Metrics: Prioritize strategies with strong 12-month pass rates over recency scores, as longer data periods give a better indication of reliability.

Conclusion

When selecting a strategy from the leaderboard:

1. Focus primarily on the overall pass rate.
2. Consider average days and EP hits to set realistic expectations.
3. Use recency scores as a secondary guide.
4. Review forward test data to assess real-time performance.

This approach will help you choose robust strategies that are likely to perform well over time.